Tip O'Neill Is Still Right

A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll confirms that Barack Obama is still enjoying the same "cognitive dissonance" as President as he did as a candidate: people really like him...but not his policies. While enjoying strong approval ratings, respondents also believe that the "stimulus" bill won't do much stimulating and taxpayers don't support raising taxes for health care.

While the media tries to nationalize the upcoming elections by discussing Rush Limbaugh ad nauseum, it's important to note that it is Congressional elections that are next on the docket in 2010. Tip O'Neill's assertion that "all politics is local" remains correct.

The Democratic strategy of connecting Limbaugh with national GOP leaders does have these positive impacts for Washington Democrats: it fires up the base, it brings in dollars, and it forces Republicans to talk "Rush" rather than about Obama's unpopular policies.

But there's no lasting impact on federal and state legislative races in competitive districts. That's why Evan Bayh and other moderate-to-conservative Democrats are concerned about how Obama's liberalism may sting them in the next election.

And even as national GOP leaders are still finding the bottom, Iowa GOP chair Matt Strawn is quoted in this article that he's "bullish" on Republican politics in the Hawkeye State. I listened to Strawn speak this week on messaging and building the apparatus to win elections in advance of recruitment--things that take place literally on a precinct-by-precinct basis.

Two random final thoughts: as a former radio announcer, I can confidently assert that the big winner in the Rush Limbaugh brouhaha is: Rush Limbaugh. He gets more listeners, who listen more frequently and for longer periods of time, resulting in more advertising revenue, resulting in more income....

AND: If Obama continues to remain personally popular while his policies do not, when do we get to start calling him the "Teflon President"?

Just sayin'.