Losing The Independents

In both the media and in my conversations with activists, I'd noticed lately that Democrats have turned from promoting an agenda to ginning up enthusiasm among their base. Now the New York Times confirms that the White House has given up on convincing independent voters to support Democrats this year.

I was assisting GOP campaigns in 2006 when the Republicans lost the independent vote. Voters had become convinced that Republicans were corrupt after a series of high profile scandals. The proverbial "straw that broke the camel's back" that year was the Mark Foley scandal. During the week following the first reports of Foley's behavior, polling showed that independents were switching their support to Democratic candidates.

This move by the Democrats means that they will be switching their resources to races in regions that are solidly or lean Democratic in order to minimize their overall losses. They'll concede the marginal races and the areas that lean Republican.

Democrats will also work on increasing turn-out in Democratic strongholds in order to win tight statewide races.

This means more anti-Republican rhetoric and personal attacks from Democratic leaders in the next month in order to close the enthusiasm gap widely reported this cycle. It's not about convincing independents anymore; it's about getting Democrats to the polls.