This
compelling piece by Meghan Malloy in today's Iowa Independent is exactly what we've been discussing in recent weeks in our household. In the article, which you really must read, Malloy talks with a number of distinguished political analysts--and the consensus lines up with what Jeff and I have been saying between ourselves: A combination of factors is setting the GOP up for a long hard slog toward the 2012 election (Jeff, ever the optimist about his party and concerned about Obama's response to economic challenges, is still predicting a Republican win).
Iowa's "first in the nation" status, so valuable in establishing Barack Obama as a viable national Democratic candidate for the White House a few years ago, isn't doing the Republican party any favors this time around (
it didn't last time either, though it probably influenced John McCain's choice of running mate and launched Sarah Palin's unlikely post-2008 career). Iowa Republicans are more conservative than Republicans elsewhere in the country, and they are far
too easily fired up by distracting and divisive issues. Some of my long-time Republican friends (even an elected official or two) have told me that they feel entirely unwelcome in their party--and some have changed their voter registration accordingly, or have indicated that they will no longer simply swallow the party line on election day.
The apparently unsuccessful effort to pull New Jersey Governor Chris Christie into the race earlier this week is one clear sign of this--and the fact that it was 7 high-profile donors doing the recruiting suggests that fundraising may be a problem if Iowa caucus hopefuls continue to be perceived by donors as being too extreme and ultimately unelectable (which isn't to say that there won't be money flowing into these campaigns in Iowa--but it'll be split many ways, and I'll bet much of it will come from out of state). Unfortunately for the national GOP, "too extreme" is apparently just what Iowa's Republican party base wants.
I predict that listening to stories out of Iowa for the next 7-8 months will lead national Republican voters to disassociate themselves from the rhetoric these candidates have to spout in order to attract grassroots Republican support here in our state. Now doesn't Mitt Romney look smart to
announce in New Hampshire?